Will U.S. military support in Syria make a difference?
By Barbara Starr
Even as the Obama administration refuses to openly say whether CIA deliveries of small arms and ammunition to Syrian opposition fighters has begun, there is increasing doubt in many quarters that U.S. shipments will make much of a difference in fighting on the ground, as the intelligence picture for the rebels grows more dire.
"I don't believe the rebels are doomed, but I don't think there's any doubt that on the battlefield the advantage is clearly with (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad," Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, said Thursday on CNN's Situation Room.
"Why wouldn't there be? Tons of Russian equipment coming in, the Iranian Revolution Guard, jihadists from all over the region, 5,000 Hezbollah fighters and he's still calling it a civil war. What it is turning into is a regional conflict and the deciding factor on the battlefield is air power," McCain said.
Intelligence assessments appear to agree with that. Several U.S. officials CNN has spoken with say simply trying to gather the latest information on the number of fighters and weapons inventories on the ground is now a major priority.
This all comes as the Central Intelligence Agency continues to train small numbers of Syrian rebel forces at bases in Jordan, according to senior U.S. officials.
Syrian rebels are claiming they have received a number of heavy weapons including anti-tanks and anti-aircrafts missiles from "brotherly nations that support the Syrian revolution," Free Syrian Army political and media coordinator Louay Almokdad told CNN during a phone call from Turkey on Friday.
The Free Syrian Army believes the newly received weapon shipments "will be a turning point" in the war against the government forces "and will definitely change the rules of the war on the ground," Almokdad said.
But so far there is no indication those heavier weapons are coming from the United States. Complicating the situation on the ground, Russia has several warships offshore, which U.S. intelligence officials believe may be carrying missiles and other weapons to regime forces.
The situation is becoming even more complicated because of the growing, but uncertain strength of both Hezbollah, Iranian militia, and also al Qaeda fighters, which at various times have allied themselves with opposition and regime elements.
Broadly speaking, the United States believes Hezbollah may at any one time have up to 4,000 fighters inside Syria, mainly coming from Lebanon. It's believed Iran is providing them with weapons and that the group's next objective is to focus its fighting around Aleppo to help regime efforts to take territory back from the rebels. Iran's Revolutionary Guard is also sending in its fighters and running loosely organized training camps, officials said.
Equally worrisome for U.S. intelligence is Al Qaeda's affiliate inside Syria, which is now the best-equipped al Qaeda group in existence today, according to informal assessments by U.S. and Middle East intelligence agencies, a private sector analyst directly familiar with the information tells CNN.
This analyst has been part of recent discussions with the U.S. intelligence community, which is urgently trying to expand its knowledge about what is going on inside Syria and is consulting outside experts. The analyst, who declined to be named because of the sensitive nature of the information, emphasized all assessments about Syria are approximate at best, because of the lack of U.S. personnel on the ground.
The analyst said concern about the Syrian al Qaeda group Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as the Al Nusra Front, is at an all-time high with the current calculation that it could have 5,000 to 10,000 fighters and supporters inside Syria.
That assessment is shared by some Middle Eastern intelligence agencies who have long believed the U.S. is underestimating the Sunni-backed al Qaeda movement in Syria, according to a Middle East source CNN spoke with.
There is also a widely held view that Iran is now running some training camps inside Syria for Hezbollah and other Iranian militias fighters coming into the country to fight in support of the regime. Administration officials have told CNN that with the growing strength and support for Al Nusra, U.S. concerns are growing about its ability to further destabilize Syria and potentially pose a greater regional threat.
"They are making desperate attempts to get chemical weapons," the analyst told CNN. He noted that in the last few weeks, security services in both Iraq and Turkey report arresting operatives who were "trying to get their hands on sarin."
Iraqi and Turkish news media had reported breaking up al Qaeda operations that were aimed at buying sarin gas. Both operations are being analyzed by the U.S. intelligence community.
Al Nusra, which originated in Iraq, has a Sunni-backed network of financial donors in the Gulf States and Lebanon. In recent weeks, its fighters also have captured a number of regime military installations, which has resulted in it getting access to a large inventory of weapons, including perhaps some small number of aircraft.
Moreover, the United States believes Al Nusra has recruited fighters of Middle Eastern descent living in Germany, Norway, France and Spain. There is also a belief about one dozen Americans, also some of Middle Eastern descent, have been recruited by Al Nusra, the analyst said.
Separately, a senior U.S. intelligence official confirmed to CNN several days ago that gathering intelligence on Syria, including its potential future use of chemical weapons, is now one of the top - if not the top - priority of the U.S. intelligence community. The growing involvement of Hezbollah Iranian militias and al Qaeda has increased dangers to regional security, the official said.
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This article just goes to show the failures of US policy in regard to Syria–failures that can hopefully be rectified. Iran has turned Syria into a power play (see: http://jcpa.org/article/the-israeli-presidential-conference/). The world community needs to respond before the bloodbath grows even larger.
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The US government should have learned a lesson last century when it helped open
Pandora's box by supporting the "democratic" revolution that deposed Russia's Tsar.
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NO, it wont make a differece. U.S., stay out of the middle east. The people there have been fighting for thousands of years. It is part of their culture. Stay out and let them continue their thousands and thousands of years of war.
Will U.S. military support in Syria make a difference?
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Sure! Anything that is done makes a difference. If nothing else, the Muslims will kill a few more Muslims.
we wlill never ever win anything in the mideast as long as the new nazi terrorist state leaches called israel is attatched to the U.S. spincter...just ask the 8% approved AIPAC bought congress.
The Elites apparently have something at stake here that they aren't telling us about and are pushing us into this.
The Nation is almost unanimously pleading for us to stay out of this...yet the media and the government have been pushing hard to get us into this...
note to the powers that be: THESE PEOPLE ON BOTH SIDES HATE US WITH A SEETHING PASSION, THIS WILL END BADLY FOR US.
the US should start scrapping treaties...we need to let the world pay for their own wars for a while.
Beautifully posted above. Thank you, well...here we go again... How true that rings!!!
I agree with you. US should stay out of Syria. BUT we all know that US can't do that. US can't live without war or taking part in a war. In 20th Century, US has invaded or attacked more countries except Nazi Germany. US can not live without an enemy be it real or perceived. If it can not find an enemy then it will create one like Saddam Hussein. The war machinery makers need clients and who could be better client than it's own government?
Another highly intelligent post here. Thank you, Pat.
That's mostly because the average American is a simpleton that needs focus... iif not on a real enemy, then an imaginery one as you have suggested. Sure, we have some very smart people in the US, but collectively rank with amoeba's on the IQ scale. Since our current "enemy" is those faceless terrorists we are now digesting each other in the name of freedom, with both the political right and left claiming superiority over the other.
That said, I agree.. we should STAY FAR AWAY FROM SYRIA... it will not end well.
Thank's Pat speaking the truth
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Getting involved in the internal affairs of Syria will end badly for the USA....
how badly depends upon how involved the USA gets.
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The best option here is that as many Muslim fighters as possible kill each other. Keep the war going!
"They [Al Nusra] are making desperate attempts to get chemical weapons," + [Al Nusra] is now the best-equipped al Qaeda group in existence today = The history is repeating itself: Afghanistan, International Mojahedinn, CIA giving training and arms to rebels, rebels come back an fire at us –> 9/11.
I recognize the insignia on those militants. That is straight up Al-Qaeda.
Yep that is Al Quaida emblem and it says in Arabic there is no god but allah and mohamed is his messenger.
It's fairly obvious at this point (and has been for a while) that our foreign policy goals are mutually exclusive to Russia's foreign policy goals. What do you do when you need to enforce your foreign policy? You kill those who stand in the way. You don't even need to declare war on Russia. You simply need to send a message, say, by assassinating Putin and his military advisers.
There is a very good reason that you aren't in charge.
McCain should volunteer for action in Syria. His leadership will turn the war around and he will satisfy his desire for combat.
And he can use his own money instead of ours while he is there!
... and hopefully the old coot will never be heard from or seen again!!
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THE TOP PHOTO IS FOR AL NUSRA aka AL QAEDA, we are supporting Al Qaeda and DO NOT FEEL ASHAMED wow!!
Stupid article! This is not our war; we cannot make a difference. Supplying arms is only about profits. Write this down and read it every time you hear calls for US military involvement. DONE.
It looks like Obama administration has "missed the boat" again... leading from behind called following!!!
No Obama did not missed the boat he recognize the boat and did the right thing by not getting the USA involve in this war it is not our war the USA should have learn by now that no matter what they do Muslims will blame the USA for not supporting or for supporting their wars and Obama made the wise decision better not get involve.
Well if McNut had won you know where we'd be today
So how is sending millions in so called "aid", weapons, and now placing troops in the neighboring county to be a target "A wise decision to not get involved"?
With all these fighters milling about I wonder were the "Food" will come from to feed them. I see a war of attrition more than a political war... .for instance ~. "Al Nusra Front, is at an all-time high with the current calculation that it could have 5,000 to 10,000 fighters and supporters inside Syria. SO WHAT if they or anyone else does..... do they have the FOOD to feed these fighters.? no food... no fight.
forget food, give both side nuclear weapons. that will put an end to this mess.
"U.S. has secretly provided arms training to Syria rebels since 2012" http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-cia-syria-20130622,0,4448399.story
For better or for worse, many men just enjoy combat, sort of like the fictional Klingons.
Once upon a time America funded the afghan mujahadeen and look where it led. Once upon a time America funded the Shah, and look again; then Saddam and Egypt, and on and on and on. Just what does America as in we the people gain from being over there? Debt and death, is about it. Its a tired old song isnt it..? Our schools lag, our infrastructure is crap wing-nuts radomley have "fits" and shoot up schools, malls and movie theaters – we have our own problems why even bother with the mideast; they've been fighting since they could pick up rocks.
Every time we interfere in another country's internal affairs, it comes back to bite us.
We always wonder why Muslims hate Americans so much and keep attacking our assets all over the world. I guess law of the jungle works in world politics as well. The stronger we are, more arrogant and bullying we have become!
Leave them alone and let them sort it out. We have enough issues in our country to deal with.
A little tired of this misinformation... Varying, yet large, percentages of Middle Eastern (namely Arab) Muslims have hated non-Muslims and specifically Europeans throughtout the existence of Islam. Mohammed? Battle of Tours? Toppling of Persia? Tamerlane? Brush up on history, not just news articles.
If we just leave the Middle East alone, they will mostly just fight each other. We should just be watching out for nuclear arms and materials. Dictators can be better than angry, religious fanatics.
Dictators are the root cause of angry religious fanatics.
Not so simple. Was the Prophet himself not a dictator who single handedly started a religion and became fanatical about it? And encouraged fanaticism? It's a circular argument either way.
The only way to bring down Assad, or force him and his Russian allies to the negotiating table, would be the establishment of a no-fly zone over Syria. But who would replace Assad if he were defeated? The best armed and most aggressive rebel group is the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, al Nasra. We sure as hell wouldn't want al Qaeda taking over and destabilizing that country. Better the devil we know.
Do you think that Russia will allow the US to create a no-fly zone? The act of creating a no-fly zone would start a much larger war. The 'terrorist rebels' cannot win this war by itself. They will need far more help than that.
U.S. concerns are growing about its ability to further destabilize Syria and potentially pose a greater regional threat. - indeed, the USA's main priority is to destabilize Syria and replace Assad with our own puppet dictator that we can completely control. It's what we do.
More of Obama leading from behind. If he wanted to get involved, he should have done so earlier on. Now he is/will be arming Taliban and al Qaeda fighters. This will be a repeat of Libya, Egypt and other "Arab Spring" failures where the US arms terrorist fighters that will be having to deal with later. This is a repeat of the 80's when we were arming Saddam Hussein in his war with Iran, only to then have to fight his again later. This is a repeat of when we armed bin Laden and the Taliban in Afghanistan when they were fighting the Soviets and then we had to fight them later. We are building the next Frankenstein monster that we will have to deal with when he turns our own weapons we gave him against us.
your best hope is that Syria will become like Libya or Somalia where different militia will be fighting among themselves and the wet just large stay out of it
Yes a slow, mutual grinding destruction to keep "them" busy and lower Muslim populations regardless wether they are Sunni or Shia let them go at it; did they get involved in America's civil war hell no and neither should we...
After more than two years of fighting, the rebels seem to be losing. And there are still people in the U.S. who defend the civilians' right to bear arms as a defence against an opressive government. As Syria has shown, small arms, even assault weapons, do little against a government that has tanks and aircraft and missiles, not to mention the fact that other nations get involved. Small arms would have been effective against a tyrannical government two centuries ago, but not now. We need to abandon that reason for defending the Second Amendment now.
I'd say small arms are pretty effective in protecting an individual from criminals, especially in the hands of someone trained to use them properly.
Departs how many gun battles you didn't start, you've walked away unharmed from.
General results from gun use is that he who shoots first wins. And self defenders can't shoot first, by definition.
You seem to forget that we are a little different than Syria. Any president desiring to turn our military against the civilians will be in for a rude surprise. He will not have the military support that he/she woudl think they would have. We are a volunteer army, not conscripts.
It's the armies that are made up of the poor and uneducated, forced to join by economics, that are historically the dangerous to civilians ones.
Actually this IS an abject lesson. Muskets stack up a LOT better against cannon than modern assault rifles do against tanks and APC's. Throw in the Air Force and there is NOT A CHANCE a private militia can topple a government- ANY government! Not if the army fights for the regime and not even if there is substantial outside help.
WITHOUT outside help, a militia cannot take out a government EVEN IF THE ARMY REFUSES TO FIGHT. The local police can take out ANY militia.
It is about time to kick Russians off region once forever. They are major source of instability. Besides Syria they are still strong in Bosnia and Serbia. It's time for cleanup...
Thank you Sefer, for vomiting out your ignorance about the Russians here! It's the right-wing thugs in Washington who are endeavoring to take over Syria, not the Russians! Your kind of ignorance is the greatest danger facing this country today!!!
Both of you are ignorant. So, this is settled.
Yeah and Egypt is our friend? Lets throw another $1.8 billion at them too. Keep the money home here and let Russia go to hell in a handbasket. They tried killing off the Taliban and failed. Lets watch the Gulf go the same way. Maybe we will gain energy independance by quitting to feed the world with our energy. Tax the big companies that offshore money and jobs!
I didn't realize the right wing thugs had authorized arms deliveries to the rebels. I will read the article again. Here I thought that call was the Presidents
@ Satellite Steve. Pre-Taliban was getting hit hard by Russian gunships until we gave them surface to air. If today Russians were supplying Taliban with modern surface to air and night vision our helicopters and our strategy would be at a huge risk.
Not too bright are we.
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Russians and Serbs are Orthodox Christian brothers.
One day the USA will wish it had never set foot in Kosovo, Serbia's Holy of Holies.
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The US is training the rebels in Turkey and Jordan.
The United States is training Radical Islamist terrorists.
America should have nothing to do with syria what so ever. Kerry and McCain are idiot war mongers.
Well, the united states needs more allies in the middle east, if the government wins in syria it will be another enemy and launching point, if the rebels win, it will become an ally rather than an enemy and the US will have another launching point
@miguel,only because of the thing they have we found for them over 70 years ago,crude oil,nothing more..After our finds in N.S.Dakotas,Montana in the Bakken,Three Forks shail oil projects,not including Texas and the Gulf we have more oil untouched in the ground than all the middle east and that's fact,7.4 trillion barrels and over three times the natural gas we first discovered in 2008..And that's just on our side of the border not including Canada,so who needs the middle east just for their sand because middle easterns oil is supposidly going to dry up in less than 10 years at its current pace..So in 10 years who's going to be dependant on who for more than foriegn aid most likely the middle east that's who!!
Quite an Einstein.
America made a big mistake backing the Libyan rebels and for what? A dead ambassador iun benghazi still left unavenged by a milk-toast jive turkey President who carews more about Islamist radicals than his own people. Assad is only doing what America would do if a bunch of islamist freaks came from all over Moe-Hamidville and turn it in to a giant broken egypt ran by a jihadist slime-ape. The sauds and Qatar will someday pay for financing the rats trying to destroy the legitimate Syrian government. Look at Iraq today after America's "help".
@ Petard You are a fool, who said the Middle east is going to run out of oil in 10 years or less cite Your source Maggot.
@massoud,how's going you ragheaded imbecile..How are your so called ha ha American family doing..Licked any boots lately imbecilic one ...Read up imbecile on research done by geologist in the middle east for the oil industry and OPEC if you know who in projected production rates years from now in Saudi Arabia and other oil producing nations, imbecile!!It is an internationally known fact but again what facts do Muslim imbeciles know ,none!!Again I hope you got your store bought bride after your other girlfriend in that camel ran away...
@massoud,hey raghead look up November 2012 of ABC NEWS on a find in Colorado called Green River Foundation estimated crude oil find of over 1 trillion barrels and said it could produce more crude than OPEC combined..Now that's on top of the other 7.4 trillion that I mentioned before imbecile in the Bakken,Three Forks finds...And don't you think OPEC is sweating because we're one of the largest buyers of their crude and our buying has dropped yearly not only for them but other oil producing nations we buy from as well...
Obama royally screwed the pooch in Lebanon. The time to have sent aid to the rebels was two years ago.
Instead, in his typical lawyerly fashion, he dithered, delayed, and analyzed ad nauseum. As a result, 90,000 Syrians are now dead and we may have missed a golden opportunity to get rid of Bashir Assad, just as we missed a golden opportunity to foment regime change in Iran in 2009.
But, that's what you get when you're stupid enough to elect a rank amateur as your president with absolutely zero foreign policy experience.
But hey, he's black, talks cool, and is great at fund-raising!!!
Why should be care about Syria ? Why should US tax payers pay for Syrians ? It is Syrian problem , we need to let them deal with it, we must stay out of it ! How is it our concerns 90K Syrians died ?
"A man's got to know his limitations."
That's true for nations as well as individuals. A lot of times you can do good. But sometimes, you can't do anything about something that sucks. No matter how *much* it sucks.
Will U.S. military support in Syria make a difference? Hopefully not!!! Now my troll is most likely to pop up here and say the opposite under my name as usual. I call him Phunnie boy who happens to love Barack Obama and is most probably a Tea Party member!!!
Loves Obama AND a Tea Party member.... anybody else wonder where the sense in that comment is?
This is the end of syria
Maybe there is a mission behind the madness from Obumma. He gives the rebels a little help because Assad is starting to win. Then when the rebels/terrorists start to win, Cut the help and let Assad gain the advantage. Back and forth. They all die. Like playing chess and the US is the referee that can change the rules anytime. Debacle.
78 days. For 78 days NATO airforce was bombing Serbia. Sen. Mccain was desperate, he did not know what to do, just watch defence commitee meetings on youtube. Desperaishion, disbelieve, fear that might be the end of his political career. That's already no-fly zone over Syria (C-300), no-ship zone near Syria (yahont), and in Lebanon israelis found out that russian anti tank missiles are not so ancient.
Just think twice before making a decision, do you really need to go other there.
"No "Boots an the ground" but support the rebels with everything so they can kill each other.
ummm most ridiclulouse article i have ever read who ever wrote this is making it seem like Al Qaeda aka Al nursa front is supporting the regime in this article you said AL nursa or Al Qaeda was trying to buy chemical weapons while making it seem like they where allied with the government you are worn please fire this writer he or she is retarded
UN already reported that the Rebels had used chemical weapons.
Have you ever been in combat?
sand for brains
soon israel is going to get nuked 1 blow to the head and all jews die then usa britain and australia is going to get nuked and after that ireland dublin norway oslo and ghana is going to get nuked hey if usa wants a fight then come just come it would be a good thing that the usa starts a war everybody is waiting for the chance to kill every usa child and women.
Your ridiculous and just stupid.,Im an old man now and I guess your just a pup with no idea about anything but what someone puts an idea into your young head.
You must be bad at numbers sand because anytime america goes to war we usually have a very high kill ratio. Meaning we often kill way more of the enemy than what we suffer. We are the "Great Satan" when it comes to war and Im sure many of your kind know that- water your camel Sand and be glad your goats are healthy today for tomorrow a cruise missle may change all of that courtesy of America, we recoomend you try selling sand-boxes now that your oil gig is drying up. Tell Uncle Ackbar there are no hummus flavored ramen noodles on the market as of yet but we are working on it.
What a Humanitarian! One who is devoted to the promotion of human welfare and the advancement of social reforms; a philanthropist. NOT!