Is Assad seeking asylum?
By Jamie Crawford
U.S. officials have said for months that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's days in power are numbered.
A fight to the death might seem a more plausible outcome as the carnage of the Syrian civil war approaches its second year.
But the idea of asylum in a third country is an option that is also emerging in questions over Assad's fate.
The complexities of a successful flight from Syria, however, could complicate any hope that Assad harbors for a clean get away.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported Wednesday that Faisal al-Miqdad, the Syrian deputy foreign minister, recently traveled to Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador with personal letters from Assad looking at the possibility of political asylum for himself and his family if he were forced to leave Damascus.
But there is no indication that Assad is ready to abandon his powers yet, according to multiple sources in the United States, Europe and the Arab world. U.S. officials have made it clear that Assad's decision is in his own hands.
"That will require the Assad regime making the decision to participate in a political transition, ending the violence against his own people," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters while traveling to NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday.
"And we hope they do so because we believe, as you know, that their fall is inevitable," she said.
And the question of whether Assad seeks an offer of asylum is not as important for the United States, as are the responsibilities of the government that ultimately accepts him to make certain he is held accountable for the actions of his regime.
"A number of countries have offered" asylum to Assad, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said last month while declining to name specific countries. "We want to get him out of there so we can move on. That said, we also support accountability for him and for everybody else with blood on their hands."
And that certainly could be why Assad might find the three Latin American countries as an appealing destination.
While Cuba and Venezuela have made no secret of their anti-U.S. and western views over the years, Ecuador's leftist government has shown its resistance to U.S. policies as well, and could be hesitant to hand Assad over for prosecution.
Ecuador is currently offering WikiLeak's founder Julian Assange asylum in its British Embassy, as he resists extradition to Sweden.
But questions over the ultimate longevity of those governments might give Assad pause, some analysts say.
"Ecuador, Venezuela, Cuba are countries where he could feel safe for the time being but he has to be concerned about a shift in the winds in any of those governments as well," Scott Horton, an international law expert at Columbia University, told CNN. "And certainly no one expects the regimes in those three states to continue indefinitely."
Saudi Arabia, which has a history of accepting repressive dictators like Uganda's Idi Amin and Tunisia's Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali into exile, is not likely to figure in Assad's calculus with the government in Riyadh currently assisting and arming the rebel groups that seek his overthrow.
For many analysts who follow the situation, they say Iran has gone to great lengths to keep the Assad government in power and likely would be the most hospitable to Assad's situation should he choose to leave Syria.
"President Assad could go multiple places throughout the world," Andrew Tabler, a long-time Syria watcher who spent years living in the country, told CNN. "The question is how long can he survive there, how long can he really live in security before someone goes after him and his family, and Tehran is safer."
With Assad's Syria seen as Iran's principal ally in the Arab world and a conduit to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran likely would not have much interest in Assad leaving while still holding significant portions of Syria within his grip.
Russia, with its long time support for Assad and opposition to international efforts to oust him from power, has been mentioned as another possible destination for Assad. But that, too, may be a dwindling option.
"I think that the Russians at the moment are realizing that they are going to have to deal with a new Syria," Tabler, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said. "It's going to be hard to deal with a new Syria when they are harboring, or possibly harboring the former president."
As countries make even informal offers of asylum to Assad, the United States continues to express what it believes is their responsibility to make sure that issues of Assad's accountability inside Syria are addressed.
"We've been quite clear publicly, and I would assume we've been equally clear privately," Deputy State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on Wednesday.
But Assad's possible departure, while a welcome prospect to many in the international community, could open the door to even more instability in the country.
With the majority Sunni opposition enraged at the minority Alawite Assad regime for the many months of ruthless aerial and artillery strikes on civilians, analysts say his departure would likely hasten a scenario of revenge killings across the country on a much larger scale.
U.S. officials said they have long been planning for "the day after Assad" – such as training Jordanian troops to provide security. But for now, they just hope Syria will keep its chemical weapons under wraps.
In the end, Assad is still seen as having the vast support of his Alawite sect, that of the Iranian government, and with it, a ruthless ability to stay and fight to the end. Whether his inner core of support will ultimately see that as the best option, remains to be seen.
"The question is will his sect decide that President Assad has to leave as part of any transition in the country," Tabler said. "I think there is a real chance he will huddle along with his sect. The question is whether his sect will want to huddle with him or not."
@natlsecuritycnn on Twitter
http://minpress.ru/wp-content/plugins/wp-js-external-link-info/redirect.php?url=https://curtismelancon.com
http://player.audio-stream.com/wp-content/plugins/shoutcast-icecast-html5-radio-player/html5/html5shoutcast.php?radiolink=http://173.255.138.90:8014/&radiotype=shoutcast&bcolor=520002&background=520002&shadow=1&autoplay=1&metadata=0&bgimage=bgimage.png&width=367&height=227&facebook=https://www.ocrvmotorsports.life
http://www.comune.orbetello.gr.it/vivere-orbetello/redirect.asp?url=https://www.ocrvcenter.mobi/
https://www.tunneltalk.com/redirectpy?rurl=https://ocrv.fun
https://www.videoder.com/af/media?mode=2&url=https://ocrv.tv/
Hi there! I simply wish to offer you a huge thumbs up for the excellent information you have got here on this post. I am returning to your web site for more soon.
http://www.horseridesandmore.org/facebook.php?URL=https://fleetservicesocrv.com
Hi, I do think this is a great site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may come back once again since i have book-marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.
http://www.assnavi.com/link/out.cgi?URL=https://fleetautorepairshop.com
Pretty! This was an extremely wonderful article. Thank you for providing this information.
http://www.aksel.com/adredir.asp?url=https://www.fleetservicesorangecounty.com/
An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me breakfast simply because I discovered it for him... lol. So allow me to reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this matter here on your internet site.
http://r.3conline.com/rl.do?autobbs_block_1&t=https://theocrv.com/
Good information. Lucky me I came across your blog by accident (stumbleupon). I've saved it for later!
http://bestrevie.ws/r/46678c091e3ae21e328f865434774f917baebabe-MDEyMDE5?url=http://boxtruckrepairshop.com/
http://bridgesofamerica.com/?wptouch_switch=desktop&redirect=https://www.commercialvanrepairshop.com/
https://www.bungersurf.com/Redirect.aspx?destination=https://fleetrepairshops.com
http://test.www.feizan.com/link.php?url=https://ocrvmotorsports.us
This website really has all the information and facts I needed concerning this subject and didnÃt know who to ask.
https://www.besanthill.org/redirect.php?url=http://boxtruckrepairshop.com/
Having read this I thought it was rather informative. I appreciate you finding the time and effort to put this information together. I once again find myself personally spending way too much time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worth it!
https://slack-redir.net/link?url=http://ocrv.us/
Everything is very open with a really clear description of the challenges. It was truly informative. Your site is extremely helpful. Thank you for sharing!
https://knitty.com/banner.php?id=587&url=http://ocrvart.com/
A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment. There's no doubt that that you need to publish more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo subject but usually folks don't talk about such subjects. To the next! Kind regards!!
http://water.soundprint.org/link.php?link=http://www.ocrv.today
Excellent blog you have got here.. ItÃs difficult to find good quality writing like yours nowadays. I really appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!
http://generator-tic.wm-scripts.ru/?who=ocrv.biz/
https://www.ignicaodigital.com.br/affiliate/?idev_id=270&u=http://newrvowners.com/
https://anon.to/?http://ocrvcenter.org
I really like reading an article that will make people think. Also, thank you for permitting me to comment!
https://secure2.landal.com/Affiliates/Redirect?type=tta&countryLanguageCombination=nl-nl&cookieid=cookie&url=http://ocrv.mobi
http://www.kunstbuchanzeiger.de/link.php?url=https://ocrvshop.com
https://www.thenude.com/index.php?page=spots&action=out&id=23&link=https://rvcollisionrepairpaintshop.com/
https://login.talend.com/logout.php?redirectUrl=http://www.ocrv.art
I could not refrain from commenting. Very well written!
http://blog.e-napolistore.it/?wptouch_switch=desktop&redirect=http://ocrvcenter.biz/
https://www.rslan.com/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=62&zoneid=0&source=&dest=https://ocrvparts.com
I want to to thank you for this good read!! I certainly loved every little bit of it. I have got you bookmarked to check out new things you postÖ
https://iccadata.iccaworld.com/icca/linklog/linkref.cfm?user=member&goto=www.ocrv.club
http://darkghost.org.ua/out.php?link=https://www.rvcollisionrepairpaintshop.com/
https://www.gcup.ru/go?http://ocrvcenter.com
Excellent post. I certainly love this site. Continue the good work!
http://register.hmics.org/Subscribe/WidgetSignup?url=https://www.ocrv.store
http://beachcitiesent.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=fleetvehiclerepairshop.com
http://kaalaw.biz/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=ocrv.vip
There's definately a lot to find out about this issue. I like all of the points you have made.
http://clipsling.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=ocrv.online/
http://www.irisinspection.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=www.boxtruckrepairshop.com
Saved as a favorite, I love your site!
http://www.anonymousdonations.us/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=ocrv.fun
http://j-page.biz/ocrvmotorsports.net/
Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Spending some time and actual effort to make a great articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I hesitate a whole lot and don't manage to get anything done.
http://onceuponatime.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=ocrvcenter.biz
A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment. I do believe that you need to write more about this subject matter, it might not be a taboo matter but typically people do not discuss these issues. To the next! All the best!!
http://ljc.jieju.cn/agent/rdandstat.aspx?url=https://backboneleaders.com/
I couldnÃt resist commenting. Exceptionally well written!
https://www.smartsupp.com/affiliate/click?id=1124&url=https://backboneleaders.com
https://www.mydoterra.com/Application/index.cfm?EnrollerID=458046&Theme=DefaultTheme&ReturnURL=backboneleaders.com/
May I simply just say what a relief to find someone that actually knows what they are discussing on the internet. You certainly know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people ought to check this out and understand this side of your story. I can't believe you aren't more popular given that you surely have the gift.
http://old2.mtp.pl/out/www.www.backboneleaders.com
Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you penning this article and the rest of the website is really good.
https://advtest.exibart.com/adv/adv.php?id_banner=7201&link=http://backboneleaders.com
I couldnÃt resist commenting. Very well written!
http://www.bse.com.lb/LinkClick.aspx?link=https://backboneleaders.comsemi-truck-
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thanks, However I am encountering problems with your RSS. I donÃt know the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anybody having the same RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer will you kindly respond? Thanks!!
http://dellsitemap.eub-inc.com/loc.php?url=https://backboneleaders.com/
I love it when people come together and share ideas. Great blog, stick with it!
https://mysteryscience.com/click/press-article?url=http://backbonehunters.com/
May I simply say what a relief to discover someone who really understands what they're talking about on the net. You certainly know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people should check this out and understand this side of the story. I can't believe you're not more popular since you most certainly possess the gift.
http://scanverify.com/siteverify.php?site=www.backboneleaders.com/
https://forums.vrzone.com/redirect-to/?redirect=https://backbonehunters.com/
I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this website. I'm hoping to view the same high-grade content by you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my very own website now 😉
http://www.mnop.mod.gov.rs/jezik.php?url=https://backboneleaders.com
http://www.osbar.org/secured/plf/remote_logout.asp?returnurl=https://www.backboneleaders.com
Your style is unique compared to other folks I have read stuff from. I appreciate you for posting when you've got the opportunity, Guess I'll just book mark this page.
https://gogvo.com/redir.php?k=d58063e997dbb039183c56fe39ebe099&url=https://www.backbonehunters.com
https://www.urlshare.cn/umirror_url_check?srctype=touch&apptype=&loginuin=&plateform=mobileqq&url=https://backboneleaders.com
https://www.icr.ro/engine/track.php?nlid=368&email=altmarius1@gmail.com&url=https://backboneleaders.com
http://www.aastocks.com/sc/changelang.aspx?lang=sc&url=http://backbonehunters.com
I truly love your site.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you develop this web site yourself? Please reply back as IÃm wanting to create my own personal website and would like to find out where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Thanks!
http://blackfive.net/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=backboneleaders.com
Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon every day. It's always interesting to read through articles from other authors and use something from their web sites.
http://mias.skoda-avto.ru/bitrix/redirect.php?event1=news_out&event2=&goto=http://www.bewara.co/
Hi, I do believe this is an excellent blog. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am going to revisit yet again since i have saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.
http://fitness.flexybox.com/foreverfit/ViewSwitcher/SwitchView?mobile=True&returnUrl=http://activdirectory.net/&lang=da
Hi, I do believe this is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I will revisit yet again since I book marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.
http://cssdrive.com/?URL=pic-source.blogspot.com/
I could not resist commenting. Very well written!
https://cloudsso.hikvision.com/logout?service=https://banker.co.in
https://wfc2.wiredforchange.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2c=hdorrh+HcDlQ+zUEnZU5qlfKZ1Cl53X6url=http://ocrvcenter.net/
The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn't disappoint me as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, however I truly thought you would probably have something helpful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you can fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.
http://morimo.info/o.php?url=http://forkliftrepairorangecounty.com/
Good blog post. I certainly love this site. Thanks!
http://www.themza.com/redirect.php?r=www.www.mobileimg.com/mypictures/index.php?/guestbook&start=355875
I really love your site.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself? Please reply back as IÃm hoping to create my own blog and would like to find out where you got this from or just what the theme is named. Appreciate it!
https://ads.homedy.com/ads/click?id=79&url=https://www.www.devinkzkub.oblogation.com
A motivating discussion is definitely worth comment. I think that you need to publish more on this issue, it may not be a taboo subject but usually people don't discuss these subjects. To the next! Cheers!!
http://d.china-ef.com/goto.aspx?url=https://45.79.178.221/index.php?topic=6618.0
https://es.paltalk.com/client/webapp/client/External.wmt?url=http://thinkit.in/a/MMKDRS
https://openforbusinessmagazine01.businesscatalyst.com/Redirect.aspx?destination=http://tmuts.com/board/board_topic/5426374/5506143.htm?page=7
There's definately a great deal to find out about this topic. I love all the points you have made.
http://prlog.ru/analysis/article.rabia.co.in/141480/exactly-how-to-perform-analysis-and-also-find-the-most-effective-rv-service-near-me
http://www.themza.com/redirect.php?r=www.meticulousjessmarketing.com/
A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment. There's no doubt that that you need to write more on this topic, it may not be a taboo subject but usually people don't discuss these issues. To the next! Kind regards!!
/