Putting a price on war with Iran
By Jennifer Rizzo
An all-out U.S. war with Iran, including an invasion by American troops, would cost the global economy close to $2 trillion in the first three months and could go as high as $3 trillion, according to a Washington think tank.
A full-scale ground operation to dismantle Iran's nuclear program is unlikely but the scenario is just one of a handful that a group of nine experts, assembled by the Federation of American Scientists, examined to explore how the global economy would be impacted by U.S. action against Iran.
"There had been talks about oil spikes, about what would happen with the Iranian nuclear program, damage to Iran itself but there had been no, at least in the open sources, large-scale looks at what was going to happen globally," said Charles Blair who co-authored the report.
Here is the group's breakdown on various scenarios:
Note that all costs are median estimates for the first three months of any action. Costs projected longer than that involved too many variables, according to the group, and would be inaccurate to report.
More sanctions
The U.S. increases the financial pressure on Iran by imposing a new round of sanctions that penalizes any foreign bank that does business with any Iranian bank. Current sanctions only apply to large transactions related to Iran's energy sector. The sanctions would "seek to cleave Iran's entire energy sector from the world economy," according to the report. The new round of sanctions would also limit international lending, depleting Iran's foreign currency reserves.
Estimated Global Cost: $64 billion
Blockade
Even though Iran's economy is severely hurt by sanctions, a diplomatic agreement is not on the horizon. The United States aims to "cut off" Iran by blocking all of its oil, natural gas, energy equipment and services. A substantial amount of U.S. military assets are deployed to the Persian Gulf to enforce the shipping blockade. A worldwide ban is imposed on investments in Iran's energy sector. International lending to Iran and investment in Iranian bonds are also banned.
Estimated Global Cost: $325 billion
Targeted Strikes
The United States leads a limited air and special forces campaign, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military installations that are of some concern. In order to avoid escalation to a larger conflict the United States relies on the stealth and speed of this mission, not targeting Iranian military assets that could counter the strikes. U.S. forces run the risk of being targets.
Estimated Global Cost: $713 billion
Bombing Campaign
The United States leads a larger scale air campaign that targets Iran's nuclear facilities and its military to limit chances of Iranian forces being able to retaliate. Iranian air defenses, radar and aerial command and control facilities are bombed.
Estimated Global Cost: $1 trillion
Invasion
U.S. troops invade Iran. A naval blockade and “no-fly” zone are imposed as U.S. forces systematically take down Iran's military bases, destroying each installation one by one. Large numbers of ground troops would be needed for this mission
Estimated Global Cost: $1.7 trillion
De-escalation
The United States makes concessions to resolve the conflict over Iran's nuclear program. Sanctions are temporarily suspended and America scales back its military presence in the Persian Gulf, redeploying an aircraft carrier to another area. Oil prices around the world drop, investments increase in the region and markets react positively now that the threat of a conflict is diminished.
Estimated Global Gain: $60 billion
Not addressed by the group on Thursday were the current U.S. and international sanctions against Iran that target the country's oil by cutting off the U.S. financial system from any entity that facilitates the purchase of Iranian oil through the Central Bank of Iran. The European Union also has an embargo on the purchase of Iranian petroleum. Combined the sanctions are crippling Iran's economy and has caused Iran's currency, the rial, to plummet to historic lows.
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I hope America wars with Iran just because everyone would like to see a big ass boot squashing Iran.
America would have inváded Iran by now if it were as èasy as this article portrays. It took them 4yrs to crack a poorly armed and isolated Iraq. Iran is by far more powerful than Saddams Iraq. Unlike Iraq, Iran can próuce its war machines, Iran has powerful friends that will atleast keep them in supply in the event of a war. Most importantly Iran is now very capable of annihilìting Israel and America's millitary bases in the middle èast. And they are getting more powerful by the hour. I'll bet my gratuity America is'nt going to war with Iran, except they're forced by an unexpected Israeli pre-emptive attack on the Mullahs.
Danjuma, you are truly an ignoranus. (Note the misspelling!)
Iraq was invaded in mere weeks. The problem was all the Arab-on-Arab terror afterward.
We should have had more troops and destroyed the arms depots instead of driving past them and leaving them for the Arab terrorists. But the administration underestimated the blood thirst of Iraqis to kill each other. Our war after the invasion was trying to protect Arabs from each other. How colonial of us!
As for your Iranian Ayatollahs, we would not invade them. The people there mostly hate the regime anyway - unlike you, it seems. We would just bomb their nuclear and missile facilities. It'd be like flying kites in the park.
Iran cannot produce weapons after we blow up all their factories with our smarter-than-they-are bombs - and smarter than you are! They also cannot block the Straight of Hormuz as our navy would shove their own mines up their blow holes. They would not dare hit our facilities in the region because we would bomb their economy into rubble in six days. (Like Israel in 1967 and G-d after the Creation, we would have to rest on the 7th day.) Russia cannot supply them if their airports are potholes and their port facilities are below sea level.
Your knowledge of military capabilities is rather quaint.
Now go to your room and rock violently back and forth while reading your religious gruel.
The ayatollahs aren't gonna last and the Mossad is coming to teach you a lesson.
It did not take America 4 years to crack any war in Iraq. It was deliberately prolonged to maximize profits and return on investment for warring in Iraq to the clowns who observe America from Zimbabwae.
The cost of helping the state of Israel secretly commit genocide for the past 50 years ... priceless.
who came up with the ingenious idea to create an Israeli statehood in the middle of all that mess, should have set up shop in Alaska and the world would have been a far better place.
The article is about IRAN, you moron, not Israel.
You morons always obsess on Israel.
How does one "secretly" commit genocide, MORON? Even the leaders of the West really knew what the Nazis were doing, MORON. And today, MORON, where would they put the bodies? In your empty skull, MORON?
Even Iran's Arab neighbors desperately do not want a nuclear Iran and want the U.S., Israel, anybody, to bomb Iran's nuclear and missile facilities.
Even if all the Jews were in Alaska, morons like you would say it's a Jewish plot to control the oil.
Most of these comments are absurd. The original post is a supposedly scientific view of the economic cost of varioius types of confrontations with Iran. Instead, the usual nut cases take off after Israel. They are so obsessed they cannot even focus on the question at hand.
The most effective way of dealing with the threat of Iran's nukes is to millitarily take out their nuclear and missile facilities. The "scientists" claim the global cost of this would be well over $700 billion. This is utter nonsense and merely demonstrates the bias of their "analysis," which is they want nothing of a "kinetic" solution. The fact is that a military strike would be just that: A mere strike. There would be a spike in the price of oil for perhaps two weeks. That's it. Iran cannot block the Gulf and oil shipments. If they try, the U.S. navy would easily take out any attempt to do so. Any missile attack by Iran against Saudi Arabia or the Emirates would result in a simple U.S. response: A total bombing campaign against Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corp and its military infrastructure followed by a steady supply of weapons to the inevitable rebellion against the theolocratic dictatorship.
I assume the ayatollahs will seek to survive and maintain their billionaire lifestyles and will suffer the indignify of losing their nuclear toys.
Too bad for them. Too bad for the leftists who hate America and Israel and embraced religious extremism in the name of bringing down the West.
For those dullards who don't believe we have a dog in this fight, I remind you that Khomeini declared war against the U.S. and the West in 1979. He meant it. They have maintained this war for your information. And they don't intend to declare a ceasefire much less undeclare it.
This is Iranian Nuclear Basics for Dummies.
What really concerns is about dunderheads comment on CNN's website. Apparently, you have to be way way stupider than Fox watchers to be CNN website commentators.
Think (if you can) about it.
The cost of nuclear Iran constantly blackmailing the West with the threat of Gulf closure: Global Cost over 10 Trillion.
Ted, Apparently, you are one of the few that get it.
Most of them are incredible dummies.
The U.S. has oil now. There is no blackmailing America anymore. It can fly the entire U.S. Air Force night and day with their own fuel produced in Alaska and North Dakota. God is great and it appears he wants Iran destroyed to. America could not care less about an Iranian threat to shut down hormuz. Saudi, Gulf Arabs and Azerbaijan would ramp up oil production until Texaco, BP, and Chevron divy up Iran's oil during the aftermath. Another interesting benefit to those oil companies would be the profits and oil deals they will secure with Azerbaijan in the Khazar Sea. A lot Iranians will get to become martyrs though. That is for sure.
Excellent reply. We have weapons that have never even been used against the enemy. When push comes to shove, we have everything we need to take them out, along with anyone else who wants to join in.
They sucks the iraq iran and others terrorist cry the sissy girl!
A war with Iran would not be similar to Afghanistan. Iran is a developed country, has modern weapons; it has a unified central government . It is a theocracy and its population is in total support of fighting off Western and Zionist aggression. Leaders of Iran will proceed to engage in the development of nuclear energy in spite of the false accusations that their intentions is to develop nuclear weapons. Currently there isn't any evidence to show otherwise.
To: Nanson Hwa
Iraq was Unified too, look what happened to them. Regaerdless of anything you have to say, the USA cant have Dictators threatening to destroy countries off the map. The language has to be dealt with, and if my son has to be the one to shut them up. Then so be it!!! God is Great here too !!!
Khameni and his gang of child rapist and murderors will soon hang on a piano wire with Assad and Nasrallah.
ROTFLMAO. Noted.
The Chinese are going to have millions of surplus towels if Iran is destroyed
He only way peace can be attained in the middle east is to disarm isreali's nuclear weapons. Why is the world trying to stop iran from becoming a nuclear power if israel can boast of it? Why is occupied d land that doesn't belong to them in palestine(gaza)? The world powers are jst joking, if they like it or not, one of those islamic/arab states will possess nuclear weapons. If america goes to war, the balance of world power will shift in favour of china and with russia, they will be unstoppable. War is too expensive, saction will only make them more determine. Tackle the problem from d root! Israel must disarm its nukes and iran won't pursue nukes. Simple! I wonder what dos republican warlord want to gain from a potential 3rd world war.
Iran is simply being obstinate. If Iran is honest and sincere why are they refusing inspection. Instead they keep on threatening to wipe out Israel but I know they will be defeated. When America dealt with them, Ahmadjinad and his evil conspirators will be like Saddam Hussein. It's only a fool that doesn't know the limit of his strength.
You are correct. Iran is a nation that cannot and should not he trusted. They have already promised to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Should Israel wait for it to come. Hell no. Israel and the U.S. must never allow another holocaust to happen. Iran must be stopped at all cost. There is no alternative to war unfortunately.
WAR WITH IRAN IS WORLD WAR THREE
Israel is an apartheid state. They call government sponsored terrorist acts "surgical strikes" so that it doesn't sound so bad. Iranians have never threatened to attack Israel and Israel cannot attack Iran either. The US is not going to attack Iran because the cost is too high and the Russians and Chinese won't agree. They can impose sanctions, but without energy hungry China and India, the sanctions won't work. Ironically Iran and Iraq are the only countries that can increase their oil export in a significant manner because both countries have been under sanction for a long time.Iranians know it, we know it! So just let's sit down and talk like civilized people that we are.
iran publicly declared their reason behind pursuit of nuclear power. it is our mission to wipe out isreal from the face of the earth what about that? such nation needs know nuke. isreal has nuke a long time ago, she has not threatened or declare to wipe iran jordan egypt e.t.c out
Khameni and his child rapist gang will soon be executed by their own people.
I like an idea of a blockade, its better than declaring war.
Nuke Iran, end of story.
Just do it!
Nuke Iran. End of problem and story.
Add an "ASS" to your name Jack-ass!!!
I say we nuke them in the following order:
1. China (heard they have a massive military anyway)
2. Iran...
3. Russia
Sure it will invite war on our own soul but after we kill 10s of millions of people I think the world will start to see things our way.
B
The West's sanctions while making life miserable in Iran seems to be just making the mullahs more determined to pursue a nuclear option which, at least at this point, seems to be mainly useful as a blackmail device. It is unclear what good a nuclear weapon would be, unless of course they believe that initiating a nuclear apocalypse which destroys Israel and most of the rest of the Middle East is consistent with the pursuit of Islam's various pointless, nihilist jehadist callings. And while a lot of people would die needlessly, they should be consoled in advance with the assurance that they will reach the paradise of the afterlife to make up for their short, miserable lives on earth. This is the ultimate danger of religion, Islam or any other. And as long as the political leaders of the world continue to tiptoe around anything associated with religion, these false prophets will continue to stir up havoc everywhere.
Choke Khameni and his child murdering gang till they eat pig's manour.
The GOP solution: Start a war with Iran (totally unfunded of course). Get the Poor people to fight/die in the war while giving the Rich people "no bid contracts". Thus killing two GOP birds with one stone. The use Iran's oil to pay for the war. And when the war is over, Iran will sell us cheap oil!!! Just like in Iraq!!!! Oh wait.........never mind.
I can not believe that any US adminstration,Democrat or Republican contemplated an all out military strike on Iran.In fact the United States imposed sanctions and simultanously put the war option on the table.This diverted Iranian strategists from sanction to war as the major or more eminent threat.Now that sanction has had its impact the US does not even need to refer to the war.
The big problem here is Israel! Make no doubts about this! Iran is NO threat to the USA and it is in reality no threat to Israel. However, Israel just keeps pushing and pushing. Now Israel is busy getting ready to invade Gaza. Israel cannot take on Iran, they need to trick the USA into doing their dirty work. I hope we don't fall into this trap!
Well put, Stan. Since the idea of going to war and bashing Iran has become so politically correct, the right-wing thugs in Washington won't buy your argument!!
it annoys me Stan that the rest of the world seems to miss this very point. The main reason i voted for obama was not about the economy, it was not about Human rights, I voted for him because he doesn't seem to be the warmonger i thought Romney would be. Yahoo waited until after the elections to pull this stunt, he was hopeing to have Romney in power to do his bidding.
Stan that's just foolish. Iran is the world's largest exporter of terrorism. If you think a nuclear-armed Iran is not a threat to Israel, the Middle-East, or the USA, you have your head in the sand and the other left-wing extremist Democrats posting on here are dangerous in their thinking for the security of this country.
The Hurricane Sandy costs 60 billion dollar! That was not a WAR! Americans experienced only a few days rainy windy weather!
How did you estimate the cost of each scenario for the people who are living same as me inside of IRAN? You simply think that you will attack with a clear budget, time and scope and the project will finish easily? That’s miscalculation about Iranian love about their homeland.
rise up and take control of your country, we would feel less inclined to use the treat of force if leadership the world over were more stable and less inclined to threaten us and others. we all dream of a peaceful global community but we are absolutely willing to defend ourselves and those not able to defend themselves from the threat of war. my only wish is a peaceful world to raise my kids in. i think we all share the hopes for a good future for ourselves and our children. what kind of world do you want for your kids.
Thank you for expressing your opinion. Please, for a few minutes assume that you are living in a country that everybody is talking about the cost or time of war against it, everybody accuse its people for terrorism and deprive them from being connected with international society, everybody challenge its culture, history, territory, rights, economy and so on. Its government is struggling with economical, social, cultural, political phenomena caused by US sanctions and its people are living treadmill style life under a soviet like system. In their history there are many cases shows many treacheries from western governments, (for example read this sentence from U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright:
“The Eisenhower administration believed its actions were justified for strategic reasons. ... But the coup was clearly a setback for Iran's political development. ”)
If you were in such a country what would be your action for “rising up and taking control of your country”? I just like to understand your way of making decision in this situation for making a better REAL future for your kids. Give me some successful samples/cases or even scientific theories in the world history or science which backs your proposed way for political development. BUT please consider realities including culture, sociology, psychology, history, readiness and acceptance of the people who may use your prescription. If you could just put yourself in our shoes for a moment, perhaps you would understand why it is not as easy as you seem to think. Besides, I believe nobody can make the world safer for the kids by war. You will see, this fear driven motive has no end and its domino effects are not predictable and makes more fear.
The extreme GOP missed out by not lying enough to elect Vain Romulan & Mo Ruin. They would have borrowed money from every payday loan outlet outside military bases against giving the 47% the freedom to be free ranged. President Obama once more earns the Nobel Peace prize.
You've been breathing too much O3.
I find it very gratifying that the GOP failed to "buy" the office of President! All their PACS lost money, something they
are not very happy about!
Now Romney can go back to doing what he does best, destroying Amerian companies and sending jobs overseas!
I hope he takes Ryan with him!
Nuke them
150 ICBMs targeted all major military and civilian sites cost 800 billion.results problem gone and no one would do anything
how childish and stupid!
Hate on Jannani all you want, but it's the closest thing to the truth on this board
Significant points missed out : a) The American, European, Chinese man on the street pays $25 for a gallon of gasoline. President of the United States will be overthrown. b) A million Osama bin Ladens will spawn from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Saudi and other countries and the United States will spend the rest of their careers defending themselves and fighting against these guys which will be futile. c) Egypt will close the Suez canal. Europe will choke. Taking a cue from a closed Suez canal, Russia will hike the price of natural gas exports to Europe by 10 times. Europe will be dead. Russia will invade Europe.
A war with Iran is A BIG GIG UNASHAMED BLUFF, HUMBUG. It is only promoted by armchair journalists, fraudsters, conmasters, some politicians. Not by the western military.
If you think for one second Egypt even has the capacity or will to close the Suez Canal...Well "I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya". The ensuing sanctions and possible military escalation by the EU and the rest of the Western powers would destroy the Egyptian state.
O yeah? So will that solve the suez problem? IT WILL NOT. The world has become smarter. Its a matter of time aliens will be kicked out from the ME all together.
Nuke Iran. End of problem and story.
Yes but if we do nuke Iraq then hundreds of civilians and U.S soldiers would die...unless every single soldier in Iraq comes back home then we could probably go through with it but it's not likely to happen in the near future.
Jack, I am at a loss here. You need to read much more carefully - and a lot more.
This article is about Iraq and not Iran. (BTW, we are out of Iraq.)
No one is talking about nuclear bombs being used against Iran. It would be conventional bombs to destroy their facilities.
Please pay attention.
Initiating a war with Iran is not as simple as going to war in Afghanistan. Iran is a developed country with nuclear scientists and engineers who studied in the United States prior to the fall of the Shah of Iran. Iran's society is much more sophisticated than that of Afghanistan where tribal customs and tradition prevails. A war with Iran will be a no win situation and the radioactive fallout will outrage the surrounding Arab countries. A protracted war never produces fruitful results.
hi
You are my hero!!!!!!!!!!
you are fool Jannani
America is the root of all terror. America has invaded sixty countries since world war 2.
In 1953 America overthrow Iran's democratic government Mohammad Mosaddegh and installed a brutal dictator Shah. America helped Shah of Iran to establish secret police and killed thousands of Iranian people.
During Iran-Iraq war evil America supported Suddam Hossain and killed millions of Iranian people. In 1989, America, is the only country ever, shot down Iran's civilian air plane, killing 290 people.
In 2003,America invaded Iraq and killed 1,000,000+ innocent Iraqi people and 4,000,000+ Iraqi people were displaced.
Now America is a failed state with huge debt. Its debt will be 22 trillion by 2015.
maximum 300 people (excluding common criminals) were executed during 37 years of Shah, most of them belonged to armed leftist groups. The mullahs regime has executed more than 30,000 political activists during its 33 years tenure, including 6000 prisoners in a single one week. Shah was a dictator who preferred to leave the country instead of killing his own people. He was no Bashar Assad. Mullahs are not only dictators they are monsters worse than Nazis. Tens of Thousands of prisoners of conscience are being held and tortured in Iranian notorious prisons right now.
Nobody is talking about who is better than who?, Everybody knows that Mullahs' government is worse than any other dictatorship, What Jannani is trying to point at is intervention of the US in other countries. Please try not to conceal facts by mixing them up!
Not failed yet but it's getting there.
yes in deed but most americans will not beleive this!
Thank you Jannani, that was very well said. If being stupid was a virtue, these war-loving people posting their mumbo-jumbo here would be living saints!!!
You're not the brightest bulb on the tree, are ya?
The very thought of the U.S. and it's cronie allies invading, defeating and occupying another Middle Eastern country makes me want to scream "BLOODY MURDER"!!! Is there absolutly no end to American greed? Apparently, NO!
I feel exactly the same way you do Lyndsie but unfortunately, most Americans do not! Contrary to American public opinion, there is absolutely no glory in going to war especially with a country far weaker than our own! I wish to reiterate here that war is not the fun and games that the ignoramuses instill in the minds of our children, only pain and heartache for those caught up in it!!!
Iran will swiftly move to establish a total chokehold on the entire Gulf as soon as US moves its assets away. Ther is no way to avoid the war that is inevitable.
Vineet I totally agree with you. As much as I Hate war, Iran has presented itself as the greatest danger to the world since the death of Hitler. We the world cannot pacify them, we cannot achieve peace that way. The more we delay this war the closer they get towards acquiring nuclear weapons, and that will be a big tragedy. The earlier the USA and its European allies "man" up to the reality of this inevitable war , the better for all humanity.
You're a fool!!! Cannot pacify them?! Who have they invaded or attacked?! Between Iran and America, the USA is way more belligerent of a country than pathetic Iran may be portrayed to be. They have every right to acquire a nuclear weapon if they choose to do so. We live in a society where number one is the only one to have a history of dropping nuclear weapons on another country and number two it is accepted that nuclear weapons were dropped on another country. War, money, consumption, greed..........NONE of them are the answeres and they'll never be.
Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened to exterminate Israel solely because they do not believe that the Israeli government, nor the Israeli people, have legitimate claims to the land. They refuse to discuss the matter. The Iranian religious leaders appeal to emotion and restrict reason, effectively brainwashing the population to embrace their ideals.
Nuclear Iran will sooner or later translate into Radioactive Israel. Israel does not threaten to use nuclear weapons as Iran does. A logical, close inspection of recent Iranian history inevitably favors the notion that Iranian leaders are not responsible enough to handle nuclear weapons.
The entire middle east region hates Israel because it represents a form of government where the people are allowed to determine their own fate. Most governments in the mid east region are dictatorships disguised as democracies and republics.
Iran can produce energy by other less dangerous means and the world would support them if they pursued a course of using/producing non-lethal sustainable energy technologies. The Iranian leader's unwillingness to let go of their nuclear ambitions in favor of more efficient, environmentally safe means of producing energy should make their true intentions obvious to anyone who would take a few minutes to really consider their current agenda.
Iran is on the war path.
Gee Vineet, if being stupid were to be a virtue, both you and Kelechi would truly be living saints!!!
The Shah killed 72000 people before he left the country. he was going to kill more, but Americans realized that no amount of killing would help.
and you say that based on what?