By Matt Smith
The United States is likely to remain the leading world power in 2030 but won't hold the kind of sway it did in the past century, according to a new study by the U.S. intelligence community.
Washington will most likely hold its status as "first among equals" two decades from now, buoyed not only by military strength but by economic and diplomatic power. That's one of the conclusions of "Alternative Worlds," released Monday by the National Intelligence Council.
Rising powers such as China may be "ambivalent and even resentful" of American leadership, but they're more interested in holding positions of influence in organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund than assuming that role, the report found.
"Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over, and "Pax Americana" - the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945 - is fast winding down," the report states.
Monday's 166-page report is the fifth in the "Global Trends 2030" series by the council, an arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
It doesn't make specific predictions, but says that the world is at a "critical juncture" in which technology is advancing, competition for resources is growing and a middle class is emerging in countries around the world.
"Our effort is to encourage decision makers - whether in government or outside - to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding," council Chairman Christopher Kojm wrote in the report's preface.
The report lays out a series of possible futures, both optimistic and pessimistic, from a world in which globalization has stalled and the risk of war has gone up to one in which collaboration between Washington and Beijing produces a rapid increase in worldwide prosperity.
Technological advances will give individuals more freedom, but also have the potential to provide small groups with the kind of destructive capabilities now available only to nations.
"With more widespread access to lethal and destructive technologies, individuals who are experts in such key areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder," Kojm said during a briefing on the report. "Terrorists might focus less on mass casualties and more on causing widespread economic and financial disruptions."
Economic power is likely to shift away from the United States and Europe to China, India and Southeast Asian countries, and Africa will see an urban boom as people move to cities at a faster rate, the report concludes. But those developments will add pressure to deal with environmental issues such as more frequent or severe droughts and the projected rise in sea levels due to a warming climate.
"Under most scenarios - except the most dire - significant strides in reducing extreme poverty will be achieved by 2030," the report notes. The numbers of people living in poverty is likely to drop sharply in East and South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging behind.
Kojm said, "economic growth, the rise of the global middle class, greater educational obtainment and better health care mean –for the first time in human history - the majority of the world's population will no longer be impoverished."
But perhaps the biggest question mark in the report is the Middle East.
The region "will be a very different place" in 2030, the authors conclude, "but the possibilities run a wide gamut from fragile growth and development to chronic instability and potential regional conflicts." The youth boom that has driven the Arab Spring revolts will give way to an aging population, while shifts in energy consumption may force oil-rich Middle Eastern economies to find new sources of income.
The growth of middle classes will increase demand for political and social change, but that could be a mixed blessing: "Historically, the rise of middle classes has led to populism and dictatorships as well as pressures for greater democracy," the authors noted. Meanwhile, that global growth "disguises growing pressures on the middle class in Western economies," including international competition for higher-skilled jobs.
The growing middle class will also increase demand for water and food by more than 35% over the next couple of decades the report indicates. Advancements in key technologies such as genetically modified crops, precision agriculture and water irrigation techniques could for the most part help prevent scarcity.
An increase in the earning power, education and political clout of women "will be a key driver of success for many countries," with gender gaps closing fastest in East Asia and Latin America, the report found.
And India is likely to be in the same position in 2030 that China is today, it concludes.
"India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the authors found. China's 8%-10% growth "will probably be a distant memory by 2030," it notes. And India's economic advantage over regional nuclear rival Pakistan is likely to grow, roughly doubling the comparative size of its economy.
Pam Benson contributed to this report
© 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Don't like China's rise? To bad, China is exactly what we have allowed it to become.
Obama and Congress can repeal China's MFN (Most Favored Nation) Trade status and bring 8 million lost jobs back to the USA anytime they wish. That was Clinton's gift to America in 1999 in exchange for laundered Chinese campaign contributions. Google this thread: Clinton, China, Loral, Betrayal
Republican supporters and big business would stop that.
Major Corporations have found that China's State Sponsorship of Capitalism is the idea market for them to be in.
Unlike the US....
No environmental laws.
No child labor laws.
No Patent enforcement.
Blatant counterfeiting of US products.
Weak state controlled unions.
Low wages.
Long hours.
No benefits.
Lol, Even US Corporate expenses related to out sourcing American jobs are tax deductable. Its true. Google the thread and read it for yourself.
It is really to Ironic that the very same Americans displaced by out sourcing and out of work pay the tab for those very tax deductions.
Why?
Bad things are supposed to happen to Americans lead by Traitors.
Nah, Americans are resilient. You can't predict what cannot be seen. No one could have predicted the affect the microchip would have on our world. I remember when the thought of having a conversation with folks around the world by punching keys on a keyboard was not even in our collective psyche. But now look. It really is up to us whether we want to rule the day or not. But I agree with Bobby888. The future is ours to determine....Unless of course Iran, N. Korea or someone in Pakistan initiates a nuclear war...in which case, we're all toast.
Every time one of articles comes out...I still hear Krustev banging- his shoe at the UN shouting how the USSR will bury the west. I can hear the Ayatollah rant about the destruction of America....I can hear Sadam scream about the mother of all battles and the defeat of the U.S at the hands of Iraqi forces...Hugo Chavez cry about the downfall of the Yankee Empire...Despite these clowns of history...We endure..We continue to prosper and re-invent....2030...maybe the clown who penned this article can look into his crystal ball and post the power-ball numbers. NO ONE HAS A PATENT ON THE FUTURE.
With a current $16 Trillion Dollar Ntl. Debt and a projected $ !.3 Trillion dollar annual debt over the next four years,why would anyone be optimistic about the next two decades. Record numbers of Americans collecting food stamps, unemployment benefits, disability benefits, and on Medicaid. 10,000 Americans reaching Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid part d benefits which are unfunded liabilities that will reach into the $100 Trillion Dollar range for the entire Baby Boomer generation.The USA'S continued policing of the World where the USA spends more on Defense then the next top 17 countries combined and the future health care costs for returning veterans from our war fighting.Why should anyone believe that this is just some bump in the road, we are not about to go over a fiscal cliff but overa Fiscal Canyon.
We have had starker times in the past. Talk to your elders. Debt is not an issue when government can rake in 5 trillion dollars each year. Of course these were Clinton era numbers, we now run a larger deficit with tax cuts from both Obama and Bush. Once these run out, we will go back to the old numbers and have a huge surplus. I am not worried. I hear of more horrifying stories from my most eldest family members.
Empires end. Eventually. Ours will too. Someday.
But the New American Century is still young.
http://pulverizedtonearpower.wordpress.com/2012/07/12/pulverized-to-near-power/
Well,the dynamic which underlies the changes in global order have assume a greater dimension,this is evident in current interesting unprecedented global phenomena,as I pointed out in my book due to be published in a dramatic terms, eventual there will be great chaos............I do not wish humanity evil but we cant run away from the fact of that the day of milli (determinant of global superpower) is near,even if we choose to
Are you sure it was a book? Are you sure it wasn't...nothing?
That is why America must grow with these countries and resolve differences for economic growth to prevent instability throughout the world. We all must have the same human rights and share each others culture and values even more with one another.
By 2030 after the baby boom generation have exhausted all of the unfunded liabilities for Social security and medicare and combined with our governments out of control borrowing, spending, and (FED )money printing the National Debt will be easily $ 30 Trillion Dollars and our credit rating will be a C, interest rates will be sky high as will inflation.
WOLVERINES
Not surprising at all.
The United States has been in "decline" for a full generation or more. Trying to be the world's piggy-bank, the world's policemen while letting our own people go without food, housing or healthcare demonstrates how morally bankrupt our leaders and government are. Letting our nation be invaded by a BOZO not competent at anything other than "community organizing" simply demonstrates that fact. Our nation will fall long before 2030. Yet the good thing about that is we can start over, based on the INTENT of what the Founding Fathers envisioned – not what bottom-feeding lawyers and politicians have perverted our nation into...
US has continued to import poverty through illegal and legal immigration from the southern border.
The amount of US spending on military is higher than combined amount of the following 20 countries. This is the price to be World Cop.
National borrowing in US become the largest form of child abuse for the future sons and daughters, grandsons and grand daughters of this century. Currently, national debt Per taxpayer is already $114,000 in Sept 2012. It will balloon to $150,000 per tax payer at 2014 year end.
The 2030 World Trends report by the US-biased NIC says that China will overtake the US & Europe COMBINED by 2030!
Do you understand how soon and how significant that is?
And yet, US arrogance is such, that the report still thinks the US will continue to exert influence on a global scale, in ways that have been doing since WW2.
Sorry but you are in denial!
The US will no longer be global cop, bully, negotiator, invader, occupier – at least not without serious consequences.
The US will no longer be able to throw it's weight around with veto issues – like the Israel/Palestine issue.
It will no longer be allowed to have bases, military, all over the globe.
It will no longer be the world currency reserve, imo.
How does it plan to pay down it's debt, if China decides not to bankroll it's boundless greed anymore?
I think we will see the fall of an empire in the coming 2 decades.
And clearly, by any reasonable measure, it has already begun.
I just want to go on record as saying not one of you has a clue what the world will look like come 2030 and so I don't sound as silly as you all do I will live life to the fullest day by day and not worry about 2030 until around this time in the year 2029.
Some suggestions (between 2015 and 2050):
(1) In 2025 China's (Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau) GDP (nominal) will surpass the US. In 2050 China's GDP will be more than double to the US; possibly after 2050 China will rise continually.
US will become the No. 1 socialist country in the world. The top 1% will financially subsidize the 99% through high taxes.
It is the reverse of Karl Marx idea of the class suppression of the working class by the capitalist.
The American riches, the top 0.1%, has to take exodus to some tax havens, totally denounce their US citizenship.
Obama's status will be as high as Marx, Stalin, and Mao Tse-tung.
China, HK, and Taiwan will be the largest GDP in the world, and remains one of the lowest GDP per capita in the world, between 50-60th, versus today's 90th. Chinese population will be 1.8 billion in 2020. US population will be 600 million, from today's 300 million. The additional 300 million will be predominantly Latino population in 2030. The House speaker then, Amigo Garcia, can speak in Spanish only. It's OK, because the 90% of the members (800 in 2030 instead of today's 435) of the House representatives will be native speaker of Spanish.
(2) Trade between Southeast Asia and China will be quite large; all Southeast Asia will be prosperous. (Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia all will be good.) Trade between Russia and China will be very big, too. Russia also becomes a trade bridge between China and Europe.
Most of the Southeast Asia will turn Islamic fundamentalists with Indonesia the leader, followed by Malaysia.
Not including Indonesia, the total population of S. E. Asia will be about 300 million with relatively low GDP as exports are still low-value commodities. Trade cannot be great between China and S. E. Asia, not to mention the impending trade wars because of recurrent territorial disputes.
Malaysia and Indonesia have been Islamic for quite some time.
(3) India will be nice, but could not compete with Southeast Asia. The exports of Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam all could surpass India. Many reports overestimate India. (Is it because Indian uses English?)
(4) The US, Canada and Australia will still be very good places to live; although the US loses top one position forever.
(5) Latin America will have middle growth. Many African countries will be not bad on economic growth.
(6) The rising of shale oil will influence the fortune of Mideast. But they still could be a trade bridge between East Asia and Europe / Africa.
(7) Europe will decline slowly but continually.
You mean shale gas?
Shale gas is different from oil sand.
US has plenty of shale gas. China may be even more.
Yes, US will loose power as she rejected the Power of God (of the Bible)!!
Removing the True God removes everything!!
Quite true indeed, The One who Knows. The leaders of this this country seem to have lost their moral compass as they get us into more and more of these obnoxious wars of theirs. The leaders of the M.I.C. seem to have become their own gods as they now feel superior to Allah since they can slay Muslims at will with those ungodly drones and Apache helicoptors day after day!!!
US will turn the No. 1 socialist country in the world,
while the top 1% will support the rest of 99% in terms of tax.
The American riches, the top 0.1%, has to take exodus to some tax havens, totally denounce their US citizenship.
Obama's status will be as high as Marx, Stalin, and Mao Tse-tung.
When Obama's responsible for the deaths of tens of millions, then we'll talk.
The more you worship them, the harder they laugh at you.
US Scientist eventually discover God is an alien from outer space.
Adam and Eve are product of DNA mutation of alien's experiment on earth.
I would love to read a book that can describe that type of possibility with great detail and with the ability to make it seem plausible. sounds very interesting and a lot more intriguing then having created the world the world in 7 days.
This could indeed be very good news for 2030. The U.S., Great Britain and France already hold far too much power as it is today! It would be great to see Russia get back into the game, too!
Why is grace and truth so hated by the world? The double minded man speaks grace and pride. Where is the truth, what about the Most High and his accomplishments? The world speaks of Christ promises but always asking for favours from mankind.
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Mexicans have all the jobs in America-and China will own all of the natural gas and oil right in America–such as China's :
CN00C Ltd-owns 33% of all oil and natural gas which lies underneath the states of Colorado and Wyoming
If the South would have won the Civil War–1861–1865–Obama would not be President–thanks Honest Abe Lincoln
Thank you alan, how true that is!!! Abraham Lincoln is our very equivalent to Russia's Nikolai Lenin who were both flaming liberals and died pretty much the same way, that is, by bullit wounds, one directly and the other indirectly! Without this twosome, neither America nor Russia would have become superpowers later on!!!
Have some respect for this great nation. I pity your ignorance. She is, has always been and will continue to be the prime example of life, liberty, and democracy. Abraham Lincoln was a great man as well. His bravery and courage united all of us! I beg you to learn something because, quite frankly you are the reason people hate Americans.
Obama's fault
Socialists' fault. American Socialists.
The 16th amendment made us all "socialists."
I guess nobody has found anything witty or sarcastic to say about the matter.
Maybe there's a chink with our sway? Hahahahahahahahah
It seem like you are swaying toward poverty...hahahahahahahahahaha...Let's see if you are still laughing in 2030. The Haute Culture of Europe is coming to an End hahahahahaha....