To go or not to go: US dances around Syrian president's ouster
Syrian President Bashar Assad (right) with military officials Photo By: AFP/Getty Images
August 12th, 2011
06:00 AM ET

To go or not to go: US dances around Syrian president's ouster

Anaylsis by CNN Senior National Security Producer Elise Labott

Each day the Obama administration is inching closer to saying of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: "He must go."

The United States has been dancing around that line for months. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already said that Assad has lost legitimacy and the U.S. has nothing invested in his continued rule of Syria. The latest missive, offered this week by White House spokesman Jay Carney and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice is that Syria "would be better off without Assad."

The question is not really about timing, but whether Assad would listen. He has ignored warnings from Arab titans like Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah to stop the bloodshed against his people. So why would he heed the call of the United States with whom he has had a prickly relationship at best?

The answer is, he probably won't. At least not now. Even as the script is being written, U.S. officials and Syria watchers alike recognize a call from President Barack Obama himself for al-Assad to step down is highly unlikely to move him.

President Obama's appeal for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a long-time U.S. ally, to step down from power was successful because it was artfully timed. His comments had weight because of the influence the United States had on the Egyptian military, which was already growing tired of Mubarak. When the military leadership realized standing by Mubarak risked billions of dollars in U.S. aid, it abandoned the president, which ultimately led to his downfall.

But Obama's demand for Moammar Gadhafi to step down has only made Gadhafi dig his heels in harder. And although the United States has not explicitly called on Yemen's President Saleh to go, the administration has made clear it wants Saleh to sign a deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council that would essentially set off a process by which he would step down. Saleh, who is still recuperating in Saudi Arabia from an assassination attempt, doesn't appear to be returning to Yemen anytime soon. But he still hasn't signed the deal.

Some U.S. officials and Syria experts believe an explicit call from President Obama could further isolate the al-Assad regime. It would, they argue, encourage protestors to continue their struggle against the government. And it could send an important message to those around the Syrian president that sticking with his regime is a dead end.

But while the words might claim the moral high ground for President Obama, uncomfortable questions are sure to follow about what the United States would be prepared to do to advance its new policy objective of getting Assad out. With the U.S. economy struggling, American forces heavily engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and the U.S. military backing the flailing NATO mission in Libya, it's doubtful America  is prepared to do much. At a panel sponsored by the Middle East Institute Wednesday, Ted Kattouf, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria, cautioned against anyone in the Obama administration saying the United States is going to do whatever it takes to get the regime out, because those promises, he warned, will ultimately ring hollow.

Kattouf also cautioned against expecting too much from such a demand. There isn't a magic bullet, he says, that will cause the regime to collapse. That is certainly a concern for U.S. officials as they weigh their options. If Assad remains in office, they wonder, doesn't that risk making President Obama and, by extension, the United States, look weak and ineffective in a region where its popularity and influence continues to wane?

Repeatedly, when asked whether it was time for America to call on al-Assad to step down, Clinton has said that actions speak louder than words and results are more important than rhetoric. It appears that while the temptation to say those magic words may be great, Clinton realizes the payoff might not be as satisfying.

But such a dramatic step may not be needed by the Obama administration. Concerted, behind the scenes diplomacy by the administration over the past several months has galvanized international pressure against Syria and resulted in getting countries with real influence on al-Assad–like Saudi Arabia and Turkey- to do the heavy lifting in public. And although the United States is leading the push for sanctions, they will ultimately be most effective coming from Europe, India and China, countries which actually do business with Syria and have substantial investments in the country's energy sector.

The Obama administration does not want to be the lone voice in calling for the Syrian president to step down. But if the current trend in Syria persists, with daily casualties in cities across the country, other governments may also be ready to make that call. Now that he appears to have opted firmly for the stick of repression and not the carrot of reform, Assad may himself be the best argument the US has in rallying support for his ouster.

soundoff (4 Responses)
  1. odysseus Writes

    some news : r we all prophet now ? http://t.co/FbTt8v1 http://t.co/DnUkGb8

    August 16, 2011 at 10:08 am | Reply
  2. Odysseus Writes

    eliselabottcnn Elise Labott
    Clinton:countries buying Syrian oil and gas,sending Assad weapons, countries whose support give him comfort- "get on right side of history"
    Real scary after Russian statement : MFA_Russia MFA Russia
    Israel’s settlement activity in #EastJerusalem is aggravating the tension plagued #MiddleEast peace process.
    Well something is wrong with Russian statement concerned about a country Building houses and the leave the other Killing un armed protester

    August 12, 2011 at 11:47 am | Reply
  3. Odysseus Writes

    the only thing is certain today is that Syrian protester / terrorist has no nuclear power but the Syrian governament may have it...and either ways to help Assad fighting terrorism or to help protester in not getting killed, Internationally community must act in at least command an international investigation to stop massacre and violence as stated by erdogan who issued a 2 weeks Ultimatum

    August 12, 2011 at 10:59 am | Reply
  4. Odysseus Writes

    kept posting on dipnote about this..if Assad will leave or either reform , will he be charged for crime against humanity?
    What difference between Assad and the norwegian forgotten Breivik ? is Syria an iranian nuclear ally?
    then suddenly Uk embassy in Syria wait protester may be terrorist ...reply so we have to review all nato position for all the region...protester toke down what Reagan, Craxi Thatcher and the other put there...Then Rasmussen view : there are no condition to military engage Syria : Libya according to the past of its belligerent colonel ... So the question today is on the day of Iranian suspicious magnetic activity : what Russia has sold em? is that the reason why they are not entering?

    August 12, 2011 at 10:56 am | Reply

Post a comment


 

CNN welcomes a lively and courteous discussion as long as you follow the Rules of Conduct set forth in our Terms of Service. Comments are not pre-screened before they post. You agree that anything you post may be used, along with your name and profile picture, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the license you have granted pursuant to our Terms of Service.